Fact check: Did a cooler 2025 mean global warming had stopped?

Claim examined: Because 2025 was cooler than 2024, the long-term warming of Earth's surface must have ended. This claim starts with a correct comparison but draws a conclusion the temperature record does not support. NASA's January 2026 release says 2025 was cooler than record-setting 2024, not that temperatures returned to an earlier climate.

NASA's analysis places the average global surface temperature of 2025 at 1.19 degrees Celsius above its 1951–1980 average. The agency described 2025 and 2023 as effectively tied within measurement uncertainty. That finding is inconsistent with the assertion that warming vanished when one exceptional annual record was not repeated.

The central mistake is confusing year-to-year variation with a decades-long trend. Temperatures naturally fluctuate, and a long period of warming does not mean every year must exceed the last. One downward movement is not enough to establish a reversal.

Reference periods matter too. A temperature anomaly compares an observation with a defined baseline. Looking only at the difference between 2024 and 2025 obscures how warm 2025 remained compared with NASA's 1951–1980 reference average.

NASA's release also describes analyses by other scientific groups using related observations and somewhat different methods. NOAA, Berkeley Earth, the Hadley Centre and Copernicus all placed 2025 among the warmest years on record. Small ranking differences do not erase the broad agreement on longer-term warming.

Verdict: The claim that a cooler 2025 proves global warming stopped is not supported by the cited observations. It confuses short-term variability with the long-run pattern. This verdict addresses the stated interpretation of the data, not every question about individual weather events or future climate conditions.

A reader can check similar claims by finding the original temperature dataset, confirming the baseline, examining more than two years and comparing an online interpretation with what the cited researchers actually concluded. A cropped graph or isolated number should not substitute for that review.

Method note: Civora compared the claim with NASA's January 2026 temperature release and publicly available indicator data. No new measurements or interviews were performed.